BACK

Previous Topics

Topic Closed: July 05, 2005 - September 19, 2005

Oil & Gas

Find out more on this topic

Introduction

The first question posted on Chevron's willyoujoinus.com Internet forum focused on the expected depletion of oil and gas resources and drew an impressive 1,072 responses. As one might expect in such a highly-trafficked public arena, the comments and perspectives comprise a great continuum of opinion regarding the appropriate course of action for a more secure and sustainable energy future. This continuum is bracketed by the initial postings John Elkington's argument that voluntary initiatives and the "free" market are insufficient to meet the challenge, and Jerry Taylor's belief that the evidence of declining oil production is inconclusive and rising prices will lead consumers to switch to alternatives when oil becomes sufficiently scarce.

As the "Issues in Brief" section of the website makes clear, the stakes in this debate are growing all the time in light of the many challenges the world will face in meeting future energy needs.

For example:

  • By 2020 the world's energy consumption may be 40% higher than today.
  • World population may increase by 50% by 2050.
  • Oil production is in decline in non-OPEC countries, with OPEC's share of the world's production slated to grow from its current 40% share.
  • An estimated $16 trillion will be needed over the next three decades to maintain and expand the world's energy supply, and many of the available petroleum resources are in countries without the stable political and legal environments attractive to business.

The requirement that these energy needs be met in a sustainable manner compounds the difficulty. As Harvard professor John Holdren said at an Aspen Institute dialogue, "Energy is the most difficult part of the environmental problem, and environment is the most difficult part of the energy problem." Climate change is the most daunting challenge to meeting the energy supply challenge in a sustainable manner. Most climate scientists believe that, in order to avoid climate destabilization, the U.S. and the world will not only have to reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions but will soon have to reduce them absolutely, and by the end of this century reduce them to a small fraction of current levels.

But challenges present opportunities. As former Stanford president Donald Kennedy and AES Corporation co-founder and former CEO Roger Sant have written, "Complex public policy choices inevitably involve tradeoffs, but done wisely and cost effectively, actions to address the climate and depletion problems can help ameliorate the adverse economic and social conditions around the world that produce human suffering."

While many respondents on the willyoujoinus.com forum expressed views that were harmonious with one another, the sheer range of views ensured a healthy degree of tension and contention among the values and the preferred solutions of participants. In their totality they demonstrate both the complexity of the issues and the difficulty of forging effective energy policies, nationally and internationally, that are acceptable to people with such diverse and divergent views.

The responses can be categorized roughly under three principal headings: important players, key technologies, and major ideas and issues. Each of these major headings is presented below along with a discussion of relevant themes and sub-themes.

Table Of Contents

Analysis Download

Get the full analysis to read at your convenience or to keep for future reference. Download the Oil & Gas Discussion Analysis
(PDF, 810 KB)

Contributing Experts

About the Aspen Institute

The Aspen Institute

Read more about the Aspen Institute